US weekly jobless claims hover near 57-year lows
SPY•Initial jobless claims fell 1,000 to 194,000 in the week ended October 24, below economists’ forecast of 199,000 and near the 189,000 level reached in July, the lowest since 1969. Continuing claims dropped 21,000 to 1.701 million.
1. Claims remain low
Initial claims for state unemployment benefits fell 1,000 to a seasonally adjusted 194,000 for the week ended October 24. Claims have stayed mostly below 200,000 since mid-September and are near the 189,000 reading reached in mid-July, the lowest since 1969.
2. Continuing claims fall
Continuing claims, a proxy for hiring, dropped 21,000 to a seasonally adjusted 1.701 million in the week ended October 17. Economists described the labor market as remaining in a “low-hire, low-fire” state, with strong profits and resilient domestic demand keeping layoffs near historic lows, while the ongoing US-Israeli war with Iran was making employers hesitant to increase headcount.
3. Rates and employment
The September unemployment rate was 4.2%. Economists said it could remain steady or edge down in October, while a reduction in the labor force amid the Trump administration’s immigration crackdown was a key factor in keeping the rate low. The Federal Reserve kept its benchmark rate in the 3.75%-4.00% range on Wednesday; economists expected the central bank to raise rates in December, and Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh said employment conditions were “quite positive.”
