Usage-Based AI Agents Forecast to Expand Software Market, Pressuring Atlassian

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Deepwater Asset Management’s Gene Munster said seat-based subscription models will face pressure as AI agents and usage-based software rentals flourish, echoing Jensen Huang’s forecast of a significantly larger software industry. Last month Atlassian and other major software firms experienced share-price pressure during sector volatility.

1. Forecast of AI Agent-Driven Software Transformation

Gene Munster highlighted Jensen Huang’s comments predicting a shift away from traditional seat-based subscriptions toward renting AI agents and specialized tokens. He warned that as knowledge-workforce headcounts decline, usage-based software companies will outpace legacy models in growth.

2. Potential Impact on Atlassian's Business Model

Atlassian’s core seat-based licensing model could face increased pressure if enterprise customers opt for usage-based AI agent rentals. The firm may need to evaluate token-based pricing or agent-led features to maintain market share and revenue growth.

3. Recent Market Reaction and Sector Volatility

During the previous month’s software sell-off, shares of Atlassian fell alongside peers such as Salesforce, Zscaler and Workday. Investors have expressed concern over the sector’s ability to adapt to emerging AI-driven economics.

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