USDA Forecasts 4.6% Dining Price Surge, Boosting Texas Roadhouse ETF Exposure
The USDA forecasts a 4.6% rise in food-away-from-home prices for 2026, outpacing the 1.7% projected increase in home groceries and potentially boosting margins for restaurant chains like Texas Roadhouse. Texas Roadhouse, a top holding in the AdvisorShares Restaurant ETF, may benefit as dining-out prices climb.
1. USDA Projects Rising Dining Prices
The USDA’s 2026 Food Price Outlook predicts a 4.6% increase in food-away-from-home costs versus a 1.7% rise in home groceries. Beef and veal prices are expected to jump 9.4%, while products like pork and eggs may see deflation. This divergence underscores pressure on consumer discretionary stocks.
2. Implications for Texas Roadhouse and EATZ ETF
Texas Roadhouse appears among the top ten holdings in the AdvisorShares Restaurant ETF, which carries a 0.99% expense ratio and 0.48% dividend yield. As consumers accept higher menu prices—$12 burgers and $15 burritos—the ETF’s fast-casual portfolio, including Texas Roadhouse, could outperform sector peers.