Vail Resorts Slashes Guidance as Skier Visits Fall 20% and Lift Revenue Drops 1.8%

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Season-to-date skier visits dropped 20%, lift revenue fell 1.8%, ski school revenue plunged 14.9%, dining revenue off 15.9%, and retail/rental revenue declined 6.0% versus last year. Vail now expects full-year Resort Reported EBITDA just below the low end of guidance due to record low snowfall in western U.S. resorts.

1. Early-Season Metrics Reveal Significant Declines

Vail Resorts reported a 20.0% drop in season-to-date skier visits through January 4, 2026, compared with the same period last year. Lift revenue, inclusive of allocated season pass contributions, fell 1.8%, while ski school revenue declined 14.9% and dining revenue was down 15.9%. Retail and rental revenue at North American store locations decreased by 6.0%. These metric shortfalls were driven by one of the weakest early-season snowfalls in over 30 years, with western U.S. snowfall running approximately 50% below the 30-year average in November and December and nearly 60% below in the Rockies. Only 11% of terrain was open in December at Rocky Mountain resorts, constraining guest volume and ancillary spend for both local and destination visitors.

2. Full-Year EBITDA Guidance Trimmed to Near Bottom of Range

CEO Rob Katz indicated that full-year Resort Reported EBITDA is now expected just below the low end of the guidance range issued on September 29, 2025. This revision assumes normalized Rockies performance by Presidents’ Weekend, typical weather elsewhere, season pass usage in line with historical patterns, and stable currency exchange rates. Should Colorado and Utah operations continue to underperform, further downward adjustments are possible. Management emphasized that the guidance reflects current economic conditions and excludes impacts from the upcoming Australian season’s variability.

3. Geographic Diversification Provides Partial Weather Hedge

While western resorts faced historic lows, eastern U.S. ski areas delivered above-average early-season conditions, partially offsetting broader headwinds. Tahoe and Whistler Blackcomb saw critically low early-season snowpack but benefited from significant holiday-period storms that enabled rapid terrain expansion. This performance underscores Vail Resorts’ strategy of maintaining a geographically diverse network of 40 North American resorts and three Australian destinations, which can soften the impact of localized weather volatility on consolidated results.

4. Strategic Resilience and Capital Allocation

Despite weather challenges, guest satisfaction scores remained strong, reflecting investments in snowmaking infrastructure, employee training and resort enhancements. Management reaffirmed its ‘advance commitment strategy,’ prioritizing capital deployment to high-return projects that improve guest experience and operational flexibility. The company is also on track to achieve its net-zero operating footprint goal by 2030, a long-term initiative that investors view as a key component of risk mitigation and sustainable growth.

Sources

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