Vance's fraud crackdown may raise costs for US health insurers and enrollees
XLV•The administration says it removed 760,000 people from Affordable Care Act plans over suspected fraud, with another 400,000 under review. Analysts warn that losing healthy enrollees could raise costs for insurers and consumers, while 2027 premiums are already set.
1. Enrollment crackdown
The Trump administration says it removed 760,000 enrollees it believed did not exist or had been fraudulently signed up by brokers, and is reviewing another 400,000. It is also banning hundreds of brokers and will not accept new brokers. Policy experts said the changes could affect legitimate members who were healthy and rarely used their plans; the government said eligible enrollees can be reinstated after verifying their identity.
2. Costs and premiums
Analysts and investors said a sicker mix of members could pressure insurer profits in the remaining months of 2026 and in 2027. Insurers’ 2027 premium rates have already been approved and locked in, while insurers requested a median 15% increase for 2027, according to a KFF analysis of filings across all 50 states and Washington, D.C.
3. Broker concerns
Brokers bring in 75% of marketplace enrollees, according to government data released in 2026. A brokerage executive said consumers might be less likely to use brokers or sign up for plans after the fraud announcement and ban on new brokers. Investors said insurers with businesses beyond Obamacare, including UnitedHealth, may be better positioned to navigate the changes.
