Vfa forecasts German pharma output to fall 2.2% in 2026
XLV•German pharmaceutical production is forecast to fall 2.2% in 2026 before rebounding 4.3% in 2027. Investment spending is projected to decline 1.8% in 2027, while cumulative capital investment and research spending could be more than €4 billion below levels without additional burdens by 2030.
1. Production and investment outlook
German pharmaceutical production is forecast to fall 2.2% in 2026 and rebound 4.3% in 2027, largely on catch-up effects. Pharmaceutical investment spending is projected to decline 1.8% in nominal terms in 2027 as statutory cost-cutting measures squeeze profitability. The mandatory manufacturer rebate on patent-protected medicines rises from 7% to 15.5% at the start of 2027; cumulative capital investment and research spending could be more than €4 billion below levels without the additional burdens by 2030.
2. Economic forecasts
Germany’s economy is forecast to grow 1.3% in 2026 and 1.1% in 2027, with private investment remaining weak.
