Novo Nordisk executives now project that orally delivered GLP-1 receptor agonists could account for more than 33% of the global GLP-1 market by 2030—a significant upward revision from prior forecasts of roughly 25%. This shift reflects accelerated patient acceptance and payer support for oral formulations of semaglutide and other late-stage candidates. Novo Nordisk’s internal modeling indicates that oral pills could generate annual revenues exceeding $12 billion by the end of the decade, driven by expanded primary care prescribing and growing reimbursement in key markets such as the U.S., Europe and Japan. Investors should note that increased oral penetration may intensify pricing pressure on injectable therapies but also broadens the overall addressable market for obesity and type 2 diabetes treatments.

Novo Nordisk CEO Mike Doustdar warned that up to 1.5 million patients in the U.S. may be relying on lower-cost, unapproved compounded GLP-1 formulations, siphoning off demand from branded products. Compounded versions, often priced 60–70% below list prices for approved drugs, have proliferated in retail and mail-order pharmacies, raising concerns about quality control and patient safety. Novo Nordisk is engaging with the FDA to tighten oversight and is accelerating patient education campaigns. For investors, this trend underscores both the opportunity to win back share through competitive pricing and the risk of margin erosion if compounding remains unchecked.

Viking Therapeutics reported that its Phase 2 VENTURE trial of VK2735, a dual GLP-1/GIP receptor agonist, achieved mean weight reductions of up to 14.7% from baseline after 13 weeks, with no efficacy plateau. The peer-reviewed results, published in the journal Obesity, confirmed both primary and secondary endpoints and showed a safety profile dominated by mild to moderate adverse events. Viking is now advancing subcutaneous VK2735 into two Phase 3 VANQUISH trials: VANQUISH-1, which has fully enrolled approximately 4,650 adults with obesity or overweight and co-morbidities; and VANQUISH-2, set to complete enrollment of 1,100 adults with type 2 diabetes in Q1 2026. Investors should monitor enrollment milestones and interim efficacy readouts, expected in mid-2026, as critical value drivers ahead of potential regulatory submissions.