V•Visa forecasts U.S. retail sales will rise 4.5% year over year in November and December 2026, the strongest holiday growth since 2021. It expects gift spending to reach $777 per consumer, up 5.6% from 2025.
Visa forecasts U.S. retail sales will rise 4.5% year over year in November and December 2026, the strongest holiday growth since 2021. Holiday goods prices are projected to rise 3.4%, while inflation-adjusted spending is expected to increase 1.1%.
Consumers plan to spend $777 on gifts, up 5.6% from $736 in 2025. With higher travel costs, 27% of consumers prioritize physical gifts, compared with 15% who prioritize experiences. The forecast excludes travel and dining.
