Vistra Corp. shares fell by 7.54% in the most recent trading session, underperforming the broader market amid profit-taking following a multi-month rally. The decline represented the largest one-day drop since March and was driven in part by concerns over rising fuel costs and elevated maintenance expenditures at several natural gas facilities. Trading volume was 35% above the 30-day average, indicating heightened investor interest on the sell-off.

Over the past three years, Vistra has outperformed peers with a 655% total return, propelled by surging electricity demand from data centers catering to artificial intelligence and cloud computing. Management attributes this growth to optimized fleet dispatch, improved thermal plant efficiencies and a hedging program that has capped gas input costs at favorable levels. This performance has positioned Vistra as a top-ranked Midcontinent and PJM power supplier.

Building on its generation footprint, Vistra recently closed two acquisitions totaling 1,200 megawatts of solar capacity in the Southwest, and advanced plans for a small modular nuclear project in Texas, targeting commercial operation by 2030. The company also signed a landmark 20-year power purchase agreement with Meta Platforms, securing a baseload supply commitment to support a new data center campus. This deal underscores Vistra’s shift toward long-duration, contract-backed revenue streams.

Analysts forecast that Vistra will deliver 13% annual growth in both revenue and EBITDA through 2027, driven by contracted renewables and gas peaker additions. The shares trade at roughly 11 times forward EBITDA, below the 5-year median multiple of 12.5x, implying a potential upside of about 13% over the next 12 months. Key catalysts include the start-up of new solar projects, regulatory approvals for the nuclear venture, and extensions of corporate power contracts.