Vistra Secures 20-Year Nuclear PPA with Meta, Targets Raised Above $240
Vistra signed a 20-year power purchase agreement with Meta Platforms for three nuclear plants, securing long-term low-carbon generation offtake. Hartline Investment acquired 27,974 Vistra shares in Q3, valued at $5.48 million, while Evercore ISI and BMO raised price targets to $243 and $244.
1. Institutional Investment Moves
During the third quarter, Hartline Investment Corp established a new position in Vistra Corp., acquiring 27,974 shares valued at approximately $5.48 million, according to the company’s latest Form 13F filing with the SEC. Several other institutional investors also adjusted their stakes: Salomon & Ludwin LLC and Quent Capital LLC each initiated positions worth about $25,000, Twin Peaks Wealth Advisors LLC added shares valued at roughly $28,000 in Q2, and Anfield Capital Management LLC invested around $29,000. Notably, City State Bank increased its holding by 210%, ending Q2 with 155 shares valued at $30,000 after purchasing an additional 105 shares. Collectively, hedge funds and institutional investors now own 90.88% of Vistra’s outstanding stock.
2. Analyst Price Target Revisions
Brokerages have grown more optimistic on Vistra in recent months. Evercore ISI raised its target from $237 to $243 and maintained an Outperform rating on November 7th, while BMO Capital Markets increased its objective from $230 to $244 with an Outperform designation on January 12th. Morgan Stanley reaffirmed its Overweight rating and set a $228 target on December 16th. Cowen initiated coverage on October 15th with a Buy rating, and TD Cowen followed on October 16th with a Buy rating and a $250 target. Four analysts have issued Strong Buy ratings, twelve have given Buy ratings and three have Hold ratings, resulting in a consensus Buy rating and an average target price of $239.40 per share.
3. Insider Transactions
In mid-November, two executive vice presidents reduced their holdings significantly. EVP Carrie Lee Kirby sold 58,275 shares at an average price of $174.75 for proceeds of $10.18 million, decreasing her position by 21.07% to 218,239 shares. On the same day, EVP Scott A. Hudson sold 56,000 shares at an average of $168.86, generating $9.46 million and cutting his stake by 15.44% to 306,600 shares. Over the past three months, insiders have sold a total of 278,995 shares worth $50.76 million, representing 1.42% of total shares outstanding.
4. Financial Performance and Dividend Policy
Vistra reported third-quarter earnings per share of $1.75, falling short of the $1.78 consensus estimate, while revenue reached $4.97 billion versus an expected $6.60 billion. The company achieved a net margin of 6.70% and a return on equity of 64.04%. For the full fiscal year, analysts project EPS of approximately 7.0. In late December, Vistra increased its quarterly dividend to $0.227 per share, representing an annualized payout of $0.91 and a payout ratio of 32.49%. The ex-dividend date was December 22nd, with payment made on December 31st to shareholders of record as of December 22nd.