Vistra Q3 revenue and adjusted EBITDA beat estimates on higher energy, capacity prices
VST•Vistra’s Q3 revenue was $6.35 billion and adjusted EBITDA was $2.38 billion, beating estimates of $6.02 billion and $2.14 billion, respectively. The company raised its 2026 EBITDA and adjusted free cash flow guidance and initiated 2027 EBITDA guidance.
1. Quarterly results
Vistra reported Q3 operating revenue of $6.35 billion, above the $6.02 billion consensus estimate, and adjusted EBITDA of $2.38 billion, above the $2.14 billion estimate. Net income was $1.14 billion.
2. Earnings drivers
Ongoing Operations Adjusted EBITDA grew more than 50% year over year, mainly due to higher realized energy and capacity prices and three months of contributions from plants acquired from Lotus. Vistra said its generation fleet achieved nearly 95% commercial availability during record summer demand.
3. Outlook and repurchases
Vistra raised its 2026 Ongoing Operations Adjusted EBITDA guidance to $7.1 billion-$7.5 billion and adjusted FCFbG guidance to $4.3 billion-$4.7 billion. It initiated 2027 adjusted EBITDA guidance of $7.7 billion-$8.5 billion and authorized an additional $1.5 billion in share repurchases, which it expects to complete by the end of 2028.
