Volatility Skew Signals Upside as Rivian Forecasts $0.81 Loss on $1.26B Revenue
Rivian shares have dropped about 25% since early January as the company prepares to report fourth-quarter results Thursday. Analysts forecast an $0.81 per-share loss on $1.26 billion revenue, while options’ volatility skew signals bullish bets and Black-Scholes models project a $13.22–$16.44 trading range for the Feb. 13 expiration.
1. Q4 Earnings Outlook
Rivian is set to release fourth-quarter results Thursday, with analysts forecasting an $0.81 loss per share on approximately $1.26 billion in revenue. This follows a 46-cent loss on $1.73 billion in revenue from the year-ago quarter and continues the trend of topping consensus targets.
2. Options Market Sentiment
Options market data shows implied volatility skew favoring call options at strikes above the current share price, suggesting traders are positioning for upside moves while retaining downside protection. Selective call IV dominance and deep in-the-money call activity point to bullish expression ahead of the earnings release.
3. Black-Scholes Price Projection
Using current implied volatility and time to expiration, Black-Scholes models project a one-standard-deviation trading range of $13.22 to $16.44 for the Feb. 13 options expiration. This range reflects where shares are likely to trade in roughly 68% of scenarios following the earnings announcement.