VTI is a market-cap-weighted ETF designed to track the CRSP U.S. Total Market Index, giving investors one-stop exposure across large-, mid-, and small-cap U.S. stocks (over 3,000 constituents). Because it’s market-cap weighted, its daily move is often driven disproportionately by mega-cap tech and communication-services leaders even though it holds thousands of companies.

There isn’t a single VTI-specific headline catalyst; the move is best explained as a broad risk-on bounce after a volatile stretch where oil’s surge (and the inflation/rates knock-on effects) has whipsawed equities. Futures and macro coverage into March 31 highlight investor focus on inflation risks from higher crude and the next macro prints—especially job-market data—because they influence whether the Fed can cut rates or must stay “higher for longer.”

Oil and geopolitics remain the front-and-center macro variable: crude has been trading above $100 recently, reviving inflation worries and pushing investors to reprice the path of Fed policy. That feeds directly into Treasury yields, which have been elevated in late March (around the mid-4% area on the 10-year in recent sessions), tightening financial conditions and raising the discount rate used to value long-duration growth stocks—important because those names are major weights inside VTI.

The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) for February 2026 is scheduled for release Tuesday, March 31, 2026 at 10:00 a.m. ET, making labor-market cooling or re-acceleration a near-term swing factor for rate expectations and broad equity multiples. If jobs data comes in weaker than expected and oil doesn’t re-accelerate, that combination tends to support VTI via lower yields and improved rate-cut odds; if oil rises again and jobs stay hot, it can pressure VTI by keeping yields and inflation risk premia elevated.