Wall Street bonuses to rise for a third consecutive year, consultancy says
XLF•Wall Street bonuses are expected to rise for a third consecutive year in 2026, with equity sales, IPO underwriting and trading bonuses forecast to increase 20% to 30%. Johnson Associates said 2027 profits and compensation may be lower.
1. Bonus outlook
Wall Street bonuses are expected to rise for a third consecutive year in 2026, despite higher interest rates and market volatility beginning to slow this year's record dealmaking and trading revenue, compensation consultancy Johnson Associates said. It estimates bonuses will rise 20% to 30% for equity sales, IPO underwriting and trading bankers, 15% to 20% for M&A advisers, and 7.5% to 12.5% for fixed-income sales and trading professionals.
2. Fees and risks
Worldwide investment banking fees reached $99.4 billion in the first nine months of the year, up 9% from the same period a year earlier and the highest since records were set in 2021, LSEG data showed. Johnson Associates founder Alan Johnson said 2026 may be “the year of the banks,” but higher interest rates, geopolitical turmoil and market volatility may weigh on 2027 profits. Insurance and asset management bonuses are expected to be flat to slightly higher, while private credit incentives may decline amid increased redemption requests and losses tied to bankruptcies.
