Roundhill launched an ETF tied to whether the S&P 500 is above 10,000 on January 10, 2030. The article says the index could reach 10,000 sooner if earnings stay strong, while warning about recession and market concentration risks.
Roundhill Investments launched its XX S&P 500 Target 10,000 2030 ETF, which will invest all its assets in long-dated call options that could pay investors “substantial” gains if the S&P 500 is above 10,000 on January 10, 2030. The firm’s assets under management are just under $40 billion.
Ed Yardeni continues to expect the S&P 500 to reach 10,000 by the end of the decade, though he pushed back his 8,400 target from year-end 2026 to mid-2027. Societe Generale’s Manish Kabra expects earnings per share to reach $400 by year-end, versus LSEG consensus of $363.50; at a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 20, that implies an 8,000-point year-end base case. Kabra says his “big bull” scenario could put the index at 10,000 by the end of next year.
The article says reaching 10,000 soon would probably require a resilient US economy that avoids recession. It also flags record concentration in AI and related stocks, the weakest market breadth in a quarter of a century, and higher borrowing costs as risks.
