Wall Street bulls try on ‘S&P 10,000’ caps for size
SPY•Roundhill launched an ETF that invests in long-dated call options paying substantial gains if the S&P 500 is above 10,000 on January 10, 2030. Bullish forecasts cite earnings growth, while analysts also point to concentration and recession risks.
1. A dated S&P 10,000 bet
Roundhill Investments launched its “XX S&P 500 Target 10,000 2030” ETF, which invests all its assets in long-dated call options that will pay investors “substantial” gains if the S&P 500 is above 10,000 on January 10, 2030. The article says the index could cross 8,000 in a matter of days.
2. Earnings underpin forecasts
Ed Yardeni is standing by his call for the S&P 500 to reach 10,000 by the end of the decade, though he pushed his 8,400 target from year-end 2026 to mid-2027. Societe Generale’s Manish Kabra expects earnings per share to reach $400 by year-end, versus LSEG consensus of $363.50; applying a forward price/earnings ratio of 20 gives an 8,000 year-end target. Kabra says a scenario with Treasury yields nearer 4%, oil at $80 a barrel and positive free cash flow at US hyperscalers could take the index to 10,000 by the end of next year.
3. Risks to the rally
US corporate profits grew more than 50% in the second quarter and are expected to grow more than 35% in the third, but the article notes risks from rising borrowing costs, possible recession, record concentration in AI-related stocks and weak market breadth. It recalls that the Dow reached 40,000 in 2024, eight years later than David Elias had predicted.
