Wall Street says Tesla-SpaceX deal inevitable, but Musk says it's not certain
SPCX•Analysts see a Tesla-SpaceX deal as likely by the end of next year, but Musk says no terms have been agreed and it is not certain. Musk says Tesla needs a majority of all shares for approval, making uncast ballots a potential hurdle.
1. Merger remains uncertain
Musk said combining Tesla and SpaceX has "a lot of merit," but two special committees are still discussing the terms and he cannot join them. Analysts expect a deal by the end of next year, though no exchange ratio has been negotiated.
2. Shareholder vote is a hurdle
Musk said Tesla needs approval from a majority of all shares, not just shares voted, meaning uncast ballots count against a deal. Analysts have flagged turnout as a risk. Estimates suggest a merger could give Musk about 57% to 58% of voting rights, depending on the terms.
3. Spending and governance concerns
Analysts say combining the companies could help address spending on AI and space infrastructure, but technologies including orbital data centers, self-driving taxis at scale and humanoid robots have yet to reach commercial scale. A deal would also face governance and regulatory questions.
