KeyBanc Sets $128 Price Target After Q3 Grocery Sales and Ad Revenue Surge
KeyBanc raised Walmart’s price target to $128, an 11.95% upside from $114.34, projecting further gains into a $111–$120 range. Q3 grocery comps rose low single digits, driven by fresh-led growth, Rollbacks and a 53% jump in digital ad revenue, underpinning Walmart’s $900B market cap toward a trillion-dollar milestone.
1. Walmart’s Q3 Grocery Comps Show Low Single-Digit Growth
Walmart reported that its U.S. grocery comparable sales rose by 3.2% in the third quarter, marking the seventh consecutive quarter of low single-digit comp growth despite ongoing cost pressures across the sector. Fresh-category performance outpaced total grocery comps by 1.2 percentage points, driven by a 5.4% increase in produce sales. The company attributed this strength to a combination of expanded fresh sourcing partnerships and an optimized store layout that increased fresh-item facings by 8% year-over-year. At the same time, Walmart implemented Rollbacks on more than 8,500 grocery SKUs, resulting in a 1.8% uptick in store traffic for food categories and contributing to a 60 basis-point gain in market share against regional grocery chains.
2. Rollbacks and Value Messaging Boost Consumer Engagement
During Q3, Walmart’s targeted Rollback promotions—focused on staple items such as milk, eggs and proteins—delivered a 4.5% year-over-year reduction in average retail prices for the promoted SKUs. Digital engagement metrics highlight that these promotions drove a 22% increase in online ad click-through rates for grocery banners, reinforcing the effectiveness of Walmart’s value proposition. In addition, loyalty program data show that household transactions rose by 2.3% in stores offering enhanced value signage, indicating that price-led marketing is successfully deepening engagement with core shoppers.
3. Digital and Pickup Channels Accelerate Grocery Penetration
Walmart’s integration of e-commerce with brick-and-mortar for grocery fulfillment continued to gain traction in Q3, with online grocery sales up 47% year-over-year. The retailer now operates 3,600 curbside pickup sites for grocery orders, a 12% expansion over the prior quarter, and reported that pickup orders constituted 13% of total grocery transactions in its top 50 markets. Average order size for pickup climbed by 7%, reflecting higher basket values as consumers consolidate weekly shopping trips via digital channels.