Walmart’s Q3 Revenue $179.5B, EPS Beats Estimates; Raises FY26 Guidance
Walmart reported fiscal Q3 same-store sales growth of 4.5%, with higher traffic contributing 1.8 points, driving revenue to $179.5 billion and EPS of $0.62, beating estimates by $0.02. The retailer set FY2026 EPS guidance of 2.58–2.63 and trades at a P/E of 42, up from 37 a year ago.
1. Walmart’s Resilient Domestic Performance
Walmart’s U.S. segment delivered a 4.5% increase in same-store sales for the fiscal third quarter ended October 31, 2025, driven by a 1.8 percentage-point gain in traffic and a 2.7 percentage-point rise in average basket size. Management noted an influx of higher-income shoppers, a pattern that dates back to the 2008–2009 downturn, as consumers across income brackets seek value and convenience through initiatives such as same-day pickup, home delivery and expanded private-label offerings.
2. Third-Quarter Earnings and Guidance Raise Confidence
In its November earnings report, Walmart surpassed expectations with revenue of $179.5 billion, up 5.8% year-over-year, and adjusted earnings per share of $0.62, $0.02 above consensus. Net margin of 3.26% and return on equity of 21.3% reinforced operational efficiency. The company reaffirmed full-year guidance of $2.58 to $2.63 in adjusted EPS, positioning it ahead of the average analyst forecast of $2.55 for fiscal 2026.
3. Institutional Investors Bolster Stakes
During the third quarter, Howland Capital Management increased its position by 1.5%, acquiring 5,570 additional shares to bring its total to 365,781 shares, representing $37.7 million in market value. Evergreen Capital Management grew its stake by 13.8%, adding 6,856 shares for a $5.8 million holding. These moves follow smaller allocations by Access Investment Management, PFS Partners and Ridgewood Investments, underscoring growing confidence among hedge funds and asset managers.
4. Premium Valuation Reflects Long-Term Outlook
Walmart shares have outperformed the broader market, posting a 31.2% gain over the past year versus a 19% advance in the S&P 500. The stock trades at a forward price-to-earnings ratio of approximately 42, above the market’s 31 multiple, reflecting investors’ willingness to pay up for defensive growth, robust free-cash-flow generation and continued investments in supply-chain technology and omnichannel capabilities.