Wedbush Maintains Neutral $78 Target, Judge Upholds NYC 10% Tipping Law
Wedbush maintains Uber Neutral with a $78 target, warning of limited mobility booking upside, while analysts upgrade to Buy, citing minimal robotaxi disruption with just 7.5% market share by 2030. A judge rejected Uber’s bid to block New York City’s law requiring 10% tip prompts, potentially boosting driver earnings.
1. Cautious Outlook for Q4 Earnings
Wedbush analysts advise investors to exercise incremental caution ahead of Uber’s fourth-quarter results, scheduled before the opening bell on February 4. While consensus revenue and adjusted EBITDA targets remain within reach, the firm highlights limited upside potential due to decelerating gross bookings in the mobility segment and ongoing macroeconomic uncertainty. Delivery volume continues to grow at a mid-teens percentage rate year-over-year, but offsetting factors such as narrowing trip margins and a lack of near-term catalysts have tempered sentiment. As a result, Uber’s risk-reward profile is viewed as balanced, with Neutral ratings prevailing among leading brokerages.
2. Defeat in New York Tipping Law Challenge
On January 23, U.S. District Judge George Daniels in Manhattan denied Uber’s request for an injunction against New York City’s new tipping mandate, which compels food delivery platforms to prompt customers with a minimum suggested tip of 10% at checkout. Uber argued that the requirement infringes on free-speech rights and would exert undue pressure on users, but the court found no clear likelihood of success. City regulators estimate that interface changes by Uber and other platforms have already diverted over $550 million away from delivery workers. The law, set to take effect on January 26, will force Uber’s app to display tip options upfront, a move the company warns could reduce order volume for thousands of local restaurants.
3. Long-Term Robotics Risk and Buy Rating Upgrade
A recent research update upgrades Uber’s stock to Buy, citing a durable platform moat and best-in-class profitability metrics in both mobility and delivery verticals. Analysts acknowledge the looming prospect of autonomous robotaxis but project that AVs will account for only 7.5% of U.S. ride-hailing trips by 2030, minimizing near-term disruption to Uber’s economics. The report notes that Uber’s operating margin has expanded by over 400 basis points since 2021, and free cash flow generation reached $1.7 billion last year. With continued investments in driver incentives and technology partnerships, Uber is positioned to capitalize on its dual-mode network well into the next decade.