MIKE DOLAN, ROI Finance & Markets Columnist: This International Monetary Fund paper examines the role of forward guidance in central bank monetary policy. Released this week, it comes just as Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh is heading to this year's Jackson Hole jamboree intent on removing this weapon from the Fed's arsenal. The authors defend the practice as an important and regular explanation of the central bank's reaction function — not an attempt to eliminate volatility and uncertainty by communicating a precise future policy rate path.
ANDY HOME, ROI Metals Columnist: A U.S. Defense Logistics Agency report examines the results of a wargame conducted last July to test the resilience of the U.S. aluminium supply chain during a major conflict. It's a fascinating insight into Pentagon thinking around the critical metals issue, and it's also a useful primer on wargaming.
JAMIE MCGEEVER, ROI Markets Columnist: In “What the Treasury’s Buyback Surprise Says About the Bond Market,” Rebecca Patterson at the Council on Foreign Relations offers a well-rounded analysis of the U.S. Treasury's recent attempt to bring down long-term bond yields. She argues that the government will struggle unless it makes additional policy changes or there is a material economic slowdown. “The first is unlikely," she says, "and the second is unwanted.”
CLYDE RUSSELL, ROI Asia Commodities and Energy Columnist: This XAnalysts LinkedIn article explains where Australia — the world's largest diesel importer — sources its fuel and why it remains exposed to Middle East disruption risk even though it imports none of its diesel directly from the region.
ANNA SZYMANSKI, ROI Editor-in-Charge: This fascinating Reuters special report investigates how Mark Zuckerberg's plans to replace Meta META.O staff with AI imploded. It's an important read for this brave new world we're entering.
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