Wells Fargo Targets $50B 2026 NII as Q4 and FY2025 Revenue, NII Miss
Wells Fargo forecasts net interest income to rise to $50 billion in 2026, driven by asset cap removal, loan growth and markets revenue. In Q4 and full-year 2025, revenue and NII fell short of consensus as deposit migration and tighter lending margins squeezed earnings, with shares trading at 1.67× price-to-book.
1. Wells Fargo Projects $50B Net Interest Income for 2026 Driven by Asset Cap Removal
Wells Fargo management announced a target of $50 billion in net interest income for 2026, marking a significant increase from its 2025 NII level of approximately $44 billion. The forecast hinges on the full removal of the $1.95 trillion asset cap imposed in 2018, which management expects to unlock an additional $2 billion in annual NII by enabling growth in commercial lending. Loan portfolio expansion is also key: Wells Fargo plans to grow its loan book by 5 percent year-over-year, with particular emphasis on middle-market structures and home equity lines of credit. Rising markets revenue—projected to contribute $3.5 billion in 2026—will further bolster core earnings, reflecting a 12 percent increase from 2025 levels as equity and fixed-income trading volumes pick up.
2. Q4 and Full-Year 2025 Results Fell Short on Revenue and NII, While Valuation Remains Stretched
Wells Fargo reported fourth-quarter 2025 net interest income of $10.8 billion, missing consensus estimates by $200 million, and full-year NII of $44 billion, which trailed the Street’s view by 3 percent. The shortfall was largely attributed to faster deposit repricing and tougher competition in commercial lending, which compressed lending margins by 8 basis points in Q4. Total revenue of $22.3 billion also fell below forecast, as non-interest income declined 4 percent due to lower mortgage banking revenue. Despite these headwinds, the bank maintained a return on tangible common equity of 14.2 percent for the year. Shares currently trade at 1.67 times book value—near the highest multiple in the past decade—reflecting aggressive capital return plans of $20 billion in buybacks and dividends but limiting potential upside given expectations for interest rate cuts in 2026.