What commodity markets can expect from the Trump-Xi summit

China has been a modest, if intermittent, buyer of US oil and gas over the past decade, but imports ground to a halt last year after Beijing imposed tariffs of 10% to 15%. Washington has been pushing to change that since Trump's visit to Beijing in May. Bloomberg reported on Tuesday energy tariffs could be part of a $30 billion package of reciprocal tariff cuts flagged after the May summit but not yet implemented. That could lead to the resumption of imports, which annually ranged from $7.5 billion to $12 billion between the end of the previous trade war in 2020 and 2024. However, that would not immediately translate to a big new windfall for US LNG producers. While Chinese imports of LNG stopped after the tariffs, Chinese buyers are still fulfilling long-term contracts with their US suppliers but reselling the cargoes after purchase. Trade in agriculture, energy and rare earths has become major bargaining chips in the trade war between the United States and China and are likely to feature again when President Donald Trump hosts his counterpart Xi Jinping in Washington next week. Here's what else we know: Agricultural goods, led by soybeans, are one of the biggest US exports to China, reaching $29 billion in 2024. They are also among the least sensitive parts of the trade relationship and thus a likely area for agreement. At the Busan summit in South Korea last year, China agreed to purchase 25 million metric tons of US soybeans annually through 2028, according to the White House. US officials say Beijing then agreed to add on another $17 billion in other agricultural product purchases during Trump's visit to Beijing in May. Beijing has never acknowledged those agreements, but is nonetheless on track to meet the soybean commitment. Hitting the other will probably require exempting agricultural imports from a final 10% tariff leftover from the trade war. Analysts expect some waivers after US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer said on September 3 there could be announcements to incentivize US agricultural sales to China. Sorghum and corn are candidates as historically they were the largest exports apart from soybeans. China has historically been among the largest buyers of Iranian and Russian crude oil and the US has sanctioned refiners and other entities for the trade over the years. Ahead of the summit, the US has raised the possibility of ending some sanctions while also threatening to impose others. Trump said he would consider lifting some sanctions after his visit to Beijing, although they remain in place. Since August, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has overseen a new push to impose secondary sanctions on banks financing Iranian trade, although Chinese banks have been conspicuously absent. China's control over production of rare earths and its decision to limit exports to the US brought Trump to the negotiating table this year, and while more material is now flowing from China, the issue is not fully resolved. US firms in sensitive industries such as aerospace or chipmaking still struggle for access, while some Chinese exporters refuse to ship to the US for fear of repercussions from Beijing if the relationship worsens again. Reuters has reported that the issue was on the US planning agenda and US officials have repeatedly called on Beijing to honour its commitments to keep the critical materials flowing.

What commodity markets can expect from the Trump-Xi summit

Energy trade could resume if tariffs are cut

Agriculture may be the likeliest area for agreement

Sanctions and rare earths remain part of the wider negotiation

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