Why have India-US trade talks stalled again and what's next?
INDA•India-US efforts to finalise a bilateral trade agreement have stalled, with officials citing little room for manoeuvre and no imminent deal. India’s goods exports to the US rose to $42.79 billion in April-August, from $40.39 billion a year earlier.
1. Talks face obstacles
India and the United States agreed on a trade framework in February that reduced the tariff on most Indian goods from 50% to 18%. Talks have since stalled, with unresolved issues including a US trade investigation and a new law that could allow tariffs of up to 100% on Indian goods over New Delhi’s purchases of Russian oil.
2. Trade at stake
The US is India’s largest export market. India reported $42.79 billion in goods exports to the US in April-August, up from $40.39 billion a year earlier, and a nearly $34 billion trade surplus with the US in fiscal year 2025/26. India says generic pharmaceuticals and smartphones are among major export categories not subject to the current 10% levy.
3. Further talks possible
India seeks to protect sensitive sectors, including agriculture, and wants greater certainty over US tariffs before making concessions. The Trump administration wants India to cut Russian oil purchases. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio is expected to visit India later this month, and Narendra Modi and Donald Trump are expected to speak again soon.
