Will expensive flights send holiday dollars to the mall?
XLY•Bank of America said elevated airfares could weigh on holiday travel, potentially redirecting some spending to retail. Its card data show retail spending excluding autos ran about 18% above its annual average in the five weeks ending December 24 in each year from 2023 to 2025, peaking roughly 30% above average in the final week.
1. Holiday spending patterns
Elevated airfares could weigh on holiday travel this year, Bank of America said, but shoppers who skip or cut back on trips could put that money into shopping instead. The bank’s aggregated credit and debit card data show retail spending excluding autos ran about 18% above its annual average in the five weeks ending December 24 in each year from 2023 to 2025, with spending peaking roughly 30% above average in the final week. The next-biggest seasonal bump came around July 4, when spending was about 5% above average.
