Will Fed's Warsh break with the White House?

Analysts are still wondering whether Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh will give U.S. President Donald Trump the rate cuts he has been calling for.

Warsh faces a squeeze: risk presidential ire by tightening monetary policy or skip a rate hike and risk a hit to credibility after his own recent hawkish rhetoric.

“Warsh can still portray himself as a reluctant hawk and still a structural dove, in order to stay in the White House's good graces,” says Thierry Wizman, global forex and rates strategist at Macquarie Group, referring to the case of a rate hike.

However, the real test of Warsh's independence will come if pressure on Fed hawks intensifies.

Trump has sought for more than a year to remove Fed governor Lisa Cook and replace her with someone more aligned with his calls for lower rates.

“Another conundrum (for Warsh) will arise if the White House goes after the truer hawks, such as Lisa Cook,” Wizman adds.

“The choice made will determine whether Warsh would be willing to break politically from the White House and establish his own course.”