Winners and losers from Trump's drug pricing policy

President Donald Trump's "most-favoured nation" (MFN) drug pricing policy may be grabbing the headlines for its promise to make healthcare more affordable for Americans, but its biggest impact could be on global pharma investment flows.

The White House this week announced a new round of drug-pricing deals, bringing the scheme to 26 manufacturers covering about 89% of the branded U.S. drug market, according to ING.

Yet the Dutch bank argues the direct hit to industry profitability should remain limited.

ING believes drugmakers can largely protect margins because the policy only affects Medicaid, which accounts for just 10% of the U.S. market, it applies to new medicines and allows companies some flexibility over launch timing.

"It is no wonder that we have seen many branded pharma companies raise guidance over the past year, signalling that these agreements generally protect profitability," writes Diederik Stadig, Senior Healthcare Economist at ING.

Instead, the recent deals are unlikely to lead to big price reductions and will encourage investment in the United States. ING estimates the latest signatories have pledged at least $19.6 billion of U.S. manufacturing investment, taking total commitments to nearly $670 billion.

Europe, meanwhile, risks being the loser.

Drug launches in lower-priced European markets may be delayed to preserve U.S. pricing power, while the region risks becoming a less attractive launch market for innovative medicines and losing future pharmaceutical investment, the bank says.

ING notes applications to the European Medicines Agency fell 25% in the first four months of 2026 from a year earlier.

Summing all up, ING says: "MFN boosts US investment, hurts Europe and offers little relief on drug prices".