World Bank sees commodity prices up 23% in 2026 due to Middle East war, other shocks
USO•The World Bank projects global commodity prices will rise 23% in 2026, citing higher energy costs and shipping disruptions. It expects oil supply to fall 5.2%, food commodity prices to rise just over 10%, and metals prices to climb 25%.
1. Broad price increases
Global commodity prices are set to rise 23% in 2026 as energy costs increase and cargo shipping is disrupted by the Middle East war, Black Sea grain shipment problems and demand for safe-haven assets, the World Bank said. The bank said global energy prices surged 32% in 2026, while metals prices are projected to rise 25% and precious metals prices 40%.
2. Supply and food risks
Global oil supply is expected to drop 5.2% in 2026, the biggest fall in four decades outside the 2020 global recession. Brent crude is expected to average $92 per barrel for the year. Food commodity prices are projected to rise just over 10% in 2026 and more than 7% in 2027; a scenario involving a record El Niño, further Black Sea disruptions and an escalation in the Middle East could push food prices 12% above expectations.
3. Potential effects
The World Bank said continued shocks could keep food prices elevated, adding to inflation and tightening monetary policy. It has provided $8.7 billion in low-cost loans and other aid to 25 countries negatively affected by the Middle East war.
