World economic growth to slow to 2.6% in 2026, UN trade body says
SPY•Global economic growth will likely slow to 2.6% in 2026 from 2.9% in 2025, the United Nations agency for trade and development said, citing an energy shock from the Middle East crisis. Global trade is expected to grow 4% in constant prices after reaching a record $35 trillion in 2025.
1. Growth and trade outlook
The United Nations agency for trade and development said global economic growth will likely slow to 2.6% in 2026, down from 2.9% in 2025, as the energy shock from the Middle East crisis tests the global economy. Trade in goods and services is expected to expand 4% in constant prices, after global trade reached a record $35 trillion in 2025; the projected increase is driven by higher energy prices.
2. Regional and sector trends
Trade between China and the United States has fallen by more than 20% since 2024, while East Asia has expanded trade with both China and North America. Asia is projected to contribute 59% of global growth in 2026, with India growing 7.3%, China 4.5% and Indonesia 5.2%. Semiconductors and other AI products are the main drivers of merchandise trade, but the agency said AI-related trade does not automatically bring broad development gains and warned of financial stability risks as markets become more exposed to a few companies.
3. Other forecasts
The World Bank cut its global growth forecast to 2.5% in June and sees growth falling to 1.3% in its worst-case scenario. The International Monetary Fund forecasts 3% growth and has flagged the Iran war, trade fragmentation and AI-related corrections as risks.
