MICHAEL GREEN, CHIEF STRATEGIST, SIMPLIFY ASSET MANAGEMENT, PHILADELPHIA:
"This should send the US$ lower and gold higher WITHOUT a meaningful increase in inflation expectations. Note the forward inflation swap above (5y5INFSW in orange) has ticked lower on Day 1.
"The next step in this process requires Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh to do the right thing and cut rates at the next Fed meeting. This will steepen the curve and should start a bull steepener, which will catch macro accounts in the bear steepener asleep—the steepening will offset their losses in long-end bear positions until they are trapped.
"In turn, the steepening and long-end rally will begin to release duration from the mortgage market, compressing elevated mortgage spreads. Index funds will buy in proportion to market cap, not notional, raising the bid for long-end bonds. A positive cycle can commence that compresses artificially inflated real-rates to the benefit of the economy and the detriment of the rentier class.
"I’ve emphasized that long bonds and, in particular, inflation-protected long bonds were the neglected asset class. Secretary Bessent just told you supply is going to shrink of the most convex components of that asset class."
MICHAEL LORIZIO, HEAD OF U.S. RATES AND MORTGAGE TRADING, MANULIFE INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT, BOSTON:
“I think it goes to show a pretty strong acknowledgement from the administration that there's an inconsistent amount of demand, especially in off-the-run securities in the very back end of the Treasury curve, and this is consistent with some of the advice that they had received from the Treasury Borrowing Advisory Committee in the past that liquidity operations in the very back end of the curve had room to be increased.
“It's difficult to ignore that this is occurring at the cycle highs in yields for the very back end of the curve. Some would suggest this appears to be more of a quantitative easing. But the Treasury does have a basis and a justification already existing for this move from the Treasury Borrowing Advisory Committee and the Treasury Borrowing Advisory Committee, obviously consisting of people on both sides of Wall Street and the market makers and the most active participants, made the case that liquidity enhancements were needed in that part of the curve even before rates reached these elevated levels.”
THOMAS SIMONS, CHIEF US ECONOMIST, JEFFERIES, NEW YORK;
“It feels very similar to the yen intervention in that it was something that seems like they just shot from the hip.”
“Treasury has a policy that goes back to the mid-1970s that prioritizes being regular and predictable in their communication on issuance. And granted this is not issuance, this is actually the reverse of issuance, its buybacks, but still I think the market has come to expect that those types of announcements are going to be at the refunding. They're often preceded by questions in primary dealer surveys that circulate before the refunding and are publicly available on the Treasury's website. So I am really taken aback by this.”
“Treasury may be concerned that yields are a little bit too high, but I don't think that this is going to be a net helpful thing in the long run.”
“I don't think the Treasury realizes how significant this is in how they've damaged their credibility in terms of how we can trust any announcement that they've made before.”
“The Treasury, almost to their detriment, has been very, very slow moving in the past in making adjustments to their issuance patterns, sizes of auctions. But one thing that they've been extremely consistent with up to this point is a transparent, consistent expected pattern of communication. And this is this just completely upends that pattern.”
“If the aim of this is to reduce term premium or long-end yields, I think this is an incredibly short-sighted strategy to try to do such a thing. I don't think that they appreciate what kind of premium is built into yields that is related to the idea that we're not surprised by things."
BRIAN JACOBSEN, CHIEF ECONOMIC STRATEGIST, ANNEX WEALTH MANAGEMENT, WISCONSIN:
"Bonds are rallying because of the Treasury's announcement, but it's a temporary salve."
"It shows how we're in an era of fiscal dominance and modern monetization. The Fed is impotent in affecting long term rates. Now the Treasury is going to issue more short-term debt because of weak demand for long term debt. Even if the Fed hikes, the Treasury is effectively pumping more money-like short-term debt into the economy. (U.S.Treasury Secretary Scott) Bessent is more important to the inflation outlook than (Federal Reserve Chair Kevin) Warsh is."
TLT•
