Yum China Upgraded to Buy with $63.64 Target after 14% Earnings Surprise

YUMCYUMC

Jefferies upgraded Yum China to Buy and raised its price target from $58.75 to $63.64 following Q4 results. The company reported earnings of $0.40 per share (14.3% surprise) and revenues of $2.82 billion (3.0% above estimates) for the quarter.

1. Q4 Earnings and Revenue Beat Expectations

Yum China reported fourth-quarter earnings of $0.40 per share, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 14.3% and up 33.3% from the year-ago result of $0.30. Revenue for the period reached $2.82 billion, outpacing consensus forecasts by 3.0% and marking an 8.5% increase from $2.60 billion in the same quarter of 2024. The upside was driven by higher average check sizes and a 5.2% rise in same-store sales across the portfolio, underscoring the company’s ability to deliver consistent top-line growth in a competitive market.

2. Strong Brand-Level Momentum

KFC and Pizza Hut, Yum China’s two largest concepts, both posted solid results. KFC system sales grew 9.1% on the back of menu innovation and targeted promotions, while Pizza Hut delivered a 7.4% increase as digital orders continued to gain share, now representing over 55% of total sales. New store openings accelerated, with 150 net units added during the quarter, bringing the systemwide footprint to more than 14,000 restaurants across over 1,500 cities in mainland China, Macau and Hong Kong.

3. Jefferies Upgrades to Buy

On February 4, Jefferies upgraded the stock to a Buy rating and increased its price target by approximately 8.4%, citing robust quarterly results and ongoing store network expansion. The broker highlighted Yum China’s consistent track record of exceeding consensus revenue estimates—three out of the last four quarters—and noted that the company’s market capitalization of roughly $18.8 billion and average daily trading volume near 2 million shares reflect strong investor confidence in its growth trajectory.

Sources

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