Thirty-Four Firms Hold Rating as Cowen Upgrades Fortinet to Buy

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Thirty-four firms rate Fortinet at an average ‘Hold’, with 3 sell, 24 hold, 6 buy and 1 strong buy recommendation, alongside a mean 12-month target of $90.04. TD Cowen upgraded to Buy, arguing that AI-replace-software fears are overstated and forecasting billings outperformance in 2026.

1. Analyst Ratings Breakdown

Thirty-four brokerages have issued recommendations on Fortinet over the past year, resulting in an average stance of “Hold.” Of those, three firms recommend selling the shares, twenty-four advise holding, six favor buying, and one assigns a strong-buy verdict. The consensus one-year target sits just above ninety dollars, reflecting modest upside potential from current levels. Major firms including Weiss Ratings, Morgan Stanley, Barclays and UBS have all reiterated neutral or underweight views throughout late 2025, with Morgan Stanley raising its target modestly, while JPMorgan Chase trimmed its outlook on concerns around margin pressure in a competitive cybersecurity market.

2. Insider Transactions

In early November, CEO Ken Xie disposed of approximately 158,500 shares, representing a 0.31% reduction in his direct stake. On the same day, VP Michael Xie sold about 3,550 shares, a 0.03% decline in his holdings. These sales generated combined proceeds exceeding thirteen million dollars, according to SEC filings. Despite these dispositions, insiders collectively retain a 17.2% ownership stake, underscoring continued alignment with long-term company performance.

3. Institutional Investor Activity

Large funds have adjusted Fortinet positions notably in recent quarters. Vanguard Group increased its total by roughly 2.9 million shares in Q3, lifting its stake to over 75.5 million shares. State Street added nearly half a million shares over the same period, while Geode Capital grew its position by over 800,000 shares in Q2. New entrants include Norges Bank, which initiated a multi-billion-dollar holding in Q2. Invesco also boosted its allocation by more than 1.5 million shares in Q3. Institutional ownership now exceeds 83% of total shares outstanding, signaling strong confidence among professional investors.

4. Recent Earnings and Guidance

For the fiscal fourth quarter, Fortinet delivered revenue growth of 14.4% year-over-year, reaching approximately 1.72 billion in sales, and reported adjusted EPS of 0.74, surpassing consensus by 0.11. Net margin stood at 28.6%, while return on equity exceeded 118%. Management set full-year EPS guidance between 2.660 and 2.700, with next-quarter EPS projected in the 0.730 to 0.750 range. Analysts currently forecast roughly 2.09 EPS for the current fiscal year, reflecting tempered expectations for continued revenue acceleration amid macroeconomic headwinds.

Sources

DBF