4 mb/d Oil Shortage, $92.50 Brent Forecast to Spike FedEx Fuel Costs
For Q2 2026 Bank of America forecasts a 4 mb/d global oil supply deficit and raised its Brent crude price projection to $92.50 per barrel. Supply through the Strait of Hormuz has plunged from 20 mb/d to under 2 mb/d, risking demand rationing and added fuel cost pressure for FedEx.
1. Strait of Hormuz Supply Collapse
Oil and product flows through the Strait of Hormuz have collapsed from roughly 20 mb/d to under 2 mb/d due to the Middle East conflict, creating a critical supply bottleneck.
2. Forecasted Deficit and Price Revision
Bank of America now projects a 4 mb/d supply deficit in Q2 2026 and has raised its average Brent crude price forecast for the year to $92.50 per barrel, warning that sustained disruptions could force a 4–5% drop in global energy demand.
3. FedEx Fuel Cost and Logistics Impact
Spiking crude prices and potential energy rationing may drive up FedEx's fuel surcharges and weigh on operating margins, while supply chain constraints risk slowing delivery times and capacity utilization.