50% profit surge and $0.88 EPS beat prompt Macquarie upgrade

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Macquarie upgraded Nintendo to Outperform after net profit rose over 50% in the nine months to December on strong Switch 2 sales. The company reported $0.88 EPS versus $0.20 estimates, narrowly missed $5.29 billion revenue at $5.18 billion, kept its ¥370 billion FY26 profit forecast and highlighted chip shortage risks.

1. Momentum Concerns Trigger Stock Slide

Nintendo shares fell by 10% on Wednesday as investors grew concerned about the sustainability of demand for its flagship Switch 2 console. The drop marked the largest single-day decline in six months and reflected worries that early adopters might exhaust their purchasing pool, especially following a 30% pullback from a record high in August. Market watchers noted that, despite strong launch-week sales, the absence of a steady pipeline of blockbuster titles could weaken continued momentum.

2. Macquarie Upgrade Reflects Confidence After Profit Surge

On February 3, Macquarie raised Nintendo’s rating to “Outperform,” citing a more optimistic view of the company’s medium-term prospects. The upgrade followed the release of nine-month results showing net profit growth exceeding 50%, driven by robust Switch 2 unit shipments. Management highlighted that console hardware volumes rose by over 40% year-on-year during the period, underscoring Nintendo’s ability to convert franchise popularity into tangible financial gains.

3. Earnings Outperform Estimates While Revenue Trails Projections

In its fiscal third quarter, Nintendo reported earnings per share of $0.88, significantly surpassing consensus forecasts of $0.20. However, revenue of ¥806.32 billion fell short of the ¥847.73 billion analysts had estimated. Despite this shortfall, the company reiterated its full-year forecast of 19 million Switch 2 units sold, up from an earlier projection of 15 million, reflecting management’s belief that hardware demand will hold through the March fiscal close.

4. Supply Challenges Pose Risk to Growth Trajectory

Looking ahead, Nintendo cautioned that a global semiconductor shortage could constrain Switch 2 production in the second half of its fiscal year. With a debt-to-equity ratio of just 0.018, the company has financial flexibility to weather potential supply bottlenecks, but any prolonged restrictions in memory chip availability could delay console shipments and temper revenue growth in the next fiscal period.

Sources

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