A peace deal with strings attached

In other news: * ROI's Clyde Russell argues that the lasting legacy of the Iran war will likely be a renewed impetus for energy-importing nations to lessen their dependence on fossil fuels. Problem is, that's a lot easier said than done. * Clyde has also delved into the latest Asia crude oil flows around Asia, and notes that China is singlehandedly doing the heavy lifting in the region to compensate for reduced shipments from the Middle East as a result of the Iran war. * China is trying to export its way out of a domestic slump, unleashing what many Western governments call a second "China shock." While this strategy is triggering trade fights abroad, it's also producing a new set of potential beneficiaries at home, argues ROI guest columnist Manishi Raychaudhuri. Looking elsewhere: For all the talk about gigawatts, emissions, investments and energy policy, the U.S. power system is ultimately a story about geography. Power plants, fuel supplies, transmission lines and emerging electricity users are not distributed evenly across the country. They cluster where resources, infrastructure and demand allow them to thrive. Mapped together - on OpenGridWorks.com - America's energy assets reveal a system in transition. New technologies are spreading rapidly, but they are being layered onto networks built over decades. The result is not a single energy system, but a collection of overlapping geographies that help explain everything from power prices and reliability concerns to transmission bottlenecks and the pace of decarbonization. I dig into what the maps show in more detail here. Apparently, we're in the "final stages" of an Iran-Oman deal to define new shipping lanes and resume transit through the Strait of Hormuz. But, as always, there are strings attached. And according to Reuters reporting, some of the key conditions set by Iran include U.S. compensation to Iran for its widespread attacks, which is unlikely to go down well in Washington, DC. So, despite the positive noises from Iran and Oman, we appear to still be at an impasse until one side blinks. And to make matters even more complicated, Yemen's Iran-aligned Houthis attacked Saudi Aramco's Jazan refinery over the weekend, which has raised the likelihood of reprisal attacks that could scupper peace efforts entirely. U.S. officials have previously told Reuters that it will only lift the blockade on Iranian ports once commercial shipping through the Strait is restored "without impediments." If the U.S. sticks to that position, that would prohibit any tolling system on tankers in and out of the Strait - regardless of what Iran and Oman may agree to. That leaves things largely where they have been for the past five and a bit months - in a mess. Oil prices are up around 2% as a result of the confusion. Keep track of the latest Reuters coverage of the Iran saga here.

A peace deal with strings attached

Other energy and China-related notes

U.S. power system shaped by geography

Iran-Oman deal talks face conditions and uncertainty

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