AAII sentiment improves, but bears still dominate
SPY•Bullish sentiment rose 2.0 percentage points to 34.6%, while bearish sentiment fell 1.6 points to 46.5%. The bull-bear spread improved to minus 11.9% but remained below its 6.5% long-term average.
1. Sentiment remains cautious
The American Association of Individual Investors’ latest survey showed bullish sentiment up 2.0 percentage points to 34.6% and bearish sentiment down 1.6 points to 46.5%. Neutral sentiment slipped 0.4 points to 18.9%. Bearish sentiment has exceeded its 31.5% long-term average for 34 consecutive weeks, while bullish sentiment has been below its 37.5% average in nine of the past 11 weeks.
2. Election views divided
The bull-bear spread improved to minus 11.9% from minus 15.4% a week earlier, but remained below its 6.5% long-term average for an 11th consecutive week. In a special survey question, roughly one-third of participants said the November midterm elections would not materially affect stock prices; 18% were bullish on the impact and 15% bearish.
