Abacus FCF Cuts Spotify Holdings by 11.5%, Q3 EPS Tops Estimates

SPOTSPOT

Abacus FCF Advisors cut its Spotify stake by 11.5% in Q3, selling 3,468 shares to leave 26,735 shares worth $18.66M as its 10th largest holding. Spotify posted Q3 revenue of $5.01B and EPS of $3.83, topping estimates and prompting Citigroup, Cantor Fitzgerald to raise targets to $750 and $675.

1. Upside Potential Highlights Robust Analyst Optimism

Wall Street analysts covering Spotify project an average upside potential of 32.12% based on current consensus price targets. Although long‐term studies question the reliability of price‐target metrics, the recent trend of upward revisions in earnings estimates lends credibility to near‐term share gains. Over the past three months, nine analysts have raised their 2026 EPS forecasts by an average of 4.5%, driven by stronger than expected user growth in non‐music audio segments and improving ad monetization trends. This momentum suggests Spotify could exceed consensus revenue growth of 9.8% for the full year, setting the stage for a meaningful re‐rating of the stock.

2. Institutional Investors Trim and Reallocate Stakes

During the third quarter, Abacus FCF Advisors reduced its Spotify position by 11.5%, selling 3,468 shares and bringing its total holdings to 26,735 shares, representing 2.5% of the fund’s portfolio. That transaction, valued at approximately $18.7 million at the time of filing, marked Spotify as the fund’s 10th largest holding. In contrast, Annex Advisory Services increased its stake by 7.8% to 58,186 shares, while FFG Partners added 1,135 shares (a 7.4% increase). Collectively, institutional and hedge fund ownership stands at 84.1%, underscoring the company’s prominence in large portfolios despite selective profit‐taking by some managers.

3. Recent Analyst Ratings Reflect Cautious Optimism

Analyst coverage remains bullish overall, with two firms assigning Strong Buy recommendations, 23 issuing Buy ratings and nine maintaining Hold. Citigroup lifted its rating to Neutral with a revised target reflecting confidence in margin expansion from podcast and premium subscription revenue. Cantor Fitzgerald and Weiss Ratings have reaffirmed Hold ratings, citing valuation concerns relative to growth prospects. Wall Street Zen upgraded to Buy after noting acceleration in average revenue per user outside Europe. The diversity of viewpoints highlights a balance between near‐term execution strength and high current valuation metrics.

Sources

DZ