Adobe Options Imply 13.8% Post-Earnings Swing as Shares Slide 29.9% YTD
ADBE•Options traders are pricing in a 13.8% next-day swing for Adobe after its Thursday Q2 report, versus an 8.2% historical average over the past eight quarters. Analysts forecast $5.83 EPS on $6.46 billion revenue, while shares have fallen 29.9% year-to-date to $246.01.
1. Earnings Forecast and Growth Expectations
Adobe is set to report fiscal second-quarter results on June 11, with analysts projecting earnings of $5.83 per share on revenue of $6.46 billion, reflecting year-over-year growth of 15.2% and 9.9%, respectively.
2. Elevated Options-Implied Volatility
The options market is pricing in a 13.8% stock move in the session following earnings, substantially above the 8.2% average post-earnings swing over the last eight quarters, signaling heightened trader uncertainty.
3. Recent Stock Weakness and Technical Pressure
Shares have declined 29.9% year-to-date to $246.01, marking four drops in five sessions after a rejection at the 120-day moving average and consistent post-earnings weakness in five of the last eight quarters.
