ADP EPS Beats by $0.05, Authorizes $6B Buyback and Issues FY26 Guidance

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ADP posted fiscal Q1 EPS of $2.49, exceeding consensus by $0.05 on $5.18B revenue (+7.1% y/y), set FY26 EPS guidance of $10.81–11.01 and approved a $6B share-buyback. Analysts maintain an average “Hold” rating with a $306.42 12-month target after recent price-target cuts to $295, $272 and $230.

1. Second-Quarter Fiscal 2026 Outlook

Automatic Data Processing is expected to report second-quarter fiscal 2026 revenues of approximately $5.4 billion and adjusted earnings per share of $2.58. Growth in Employer Services, which represented nearly 80% of segment revenues last quarter, is projected to accelerate modestly as large and mid-market client implementations roll out. The Professional Employer Organization unit, now contributing more than $850 million in quarterly revenue, continues to benefit from strong small-business onboarding and recurring service fees.

2. Recent Quarterly Results and Full-Year Guidance

In its fiscal first quarter, ADP delivered $2.49 in adjusted EPS on $5.18 billion in revenue, representing year-over-year increases of 6.9% in EPS and 7.1% in revenue. Net margin was 19.8% and return on equity reached 70.6%. Management reiterated full-year fiscal 2026 adjusted EPS guidance in the range of $10.81 to $11.01, implying mid-single-digit earnings growth despite ongoing investment in data analytics and AI-driven HR solutions.

3. Analyst Ratings and Price Targets

Thirteen research firms currently cover ADP, with an average recommendation of “Hold.” Two analysts recommend “Sell,” nine are on “Hold” and two rate the stock “Buy.” The consensus 12-month price target stands at $306.42, reflecting a roughly 18% upside to current levels. Recent downgrades include JPMorgan’s shift to “Underweight” and a $295 target, while Citigroup and Wells Fargo also trimmed forecasts in the past three months.

4. Capital Returns and Insider Transactions

Last week ADP’s board authorized a new $6.0 billion share repurchase program, representing up to 5.8% of shares outstanding. The firm also declared a quarterly dividend of $1.70 per share, yielding 2.6% annually. In the past month, two vice presidents sold a combined 1,349 shares for proceeds totaling $355,852, reducing insider ownership by roughly 0.20%. Institutional ownership remains high at 80.0%, with hedge-fund stakes inching up via small new positions.

Sources

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