Advanced Micro Devices Faces $440M Export Charge After China Sales Slump, Long-Term EPS Targets Intact
White Falcon Capital held AMD among top five positions, citing its 98.8% 52-week gain, $325.2B market cap and targets of $10 EPS by FY2027E and $20 EPS by 2030E. Draft U.S. AI chip export rules triggered $440M MI308 charges and a drop in China sales from $390M to $100M.
1. White Falcon Capital Positions AMD
White Falcon Capital included Advanced Micro Devices among its top-five holdings in Q4 2025, praising its 98.8% 52-week share gain and $325.2B market cap. The fund cited guidance for $10 EPS by FY2027E and $20 EPS by 2030E as key to a potential $400+ share price.
2. Q4 Financial Performance and Hedge Fund Interest
Advanced Micro Devices generated $10.3 billion in Q4 2025 revenue, up 34% year over year, while hedge fund stakes rose to 132 portfolios from 115. Shares closed at $199.45 on March 5, reflecting near 100% annual return.
3. Impact of Proposed Export Controls
Draft U.S. rules on AI chip exports would impose a tiered review system, prompting Advanced Micro Devices to record $440 million in MI308-related charges and expect China sales to fall from $390 million in Q4 to $100 million in Q1 2026.
4. Market Share and Long-Term Outlook
Rapid growth in AI accelerators, data center microprocessors and GPUs has fueled AMD’s ascent to No. 2 GPU market share. Leadership under CEO Lisa Su and onshoring trends support bullish projections despite near-term regulatory headwinds.