Analysts Forecast 45% Upside for Aeroméxico Despite Q3 Revenues Falling 4.4%
Analysts set Aeroméxico’s 12-month price target at $30.00, with forecasts from $27.00 (Barclays) to $36.00 (Evercore ISI), implying up to 45% upside. Q3 revenues fell 4.4% as operating margins contracted to 17.8%; the stock trades at 5.1x EV/EBITDA versus a 7.6x peer average, with analysts forecasting 10.5% EBITDA growth.
1. Consensus Rating and Broker Price Targets
Grupo Aeroméxico has drawn a consensus “Moderate Buy” rating from eight research firms, with seven assigning buy ratings and one assigning a hold. The average 12-month price objective across these brokers stands at $30.00. Notable recent initiations include Barclays’ “Overweight” call with a $27.00 target and Evercore ISI’s “Outperform” rating paired with a $36.00 target, reflecting strong institutional conviction in the carrier’s medium-term upside.
2. Q3 2025 Performance and Network Repositioning
In the third quarter of fiscal 2025, Aeroméxico reported a 4.4% year-over-year decline in revenues, driven primarily by ongoing network repositioning that has temporarily weighed on yield per available seat kilometer. Operating margins contracted to 17.8%, from 19.5% in the prior-year period, as the airline absorbed higher fuel and labor costs while integrating new wide-body routes to Europe and Asia. Management expects the repositioning effort to conclude by mid-2026, at which point yields should begin normalizing.
3. Valuation Metrics and EBITDA Growth Outlook
Aeroméxico trades at 5.1 times enterprise value to EBITDA, a notable discount to the peer group average of 7.6 times. This valuation gap underpins the buy-case thesis, particularly given the company’s forecasted EBITDA compound annual growth rate of 10.5% over the next three years. Analysts highlight that as free cash flow generation strengthens post-network optimization, the valuation multiple could re-rate closer to peer levels, unlocking further upside for shareholders.