Aeroméxico Q3 2025 Revenues Fall 4.4% while Analysts Forecast 33% Upside

AEROAERO

Grupo Aeroméxico’s Q3 2025 revenues fell 4.4% and operating margin shrank to 17.8%, while the stock trades at 5.1x EV/EBITDA versus a 7.6x peer average. Eight analysts rate it ‘Moderate Buy’ with an average $30.00 price target and ranges from $27.00 to $36.00, suggesting up to 33% upside.

1. Third-Quarter 2025 Financial Results

In Q3 2025, Aeroméxico reported revenues down 4.4% year-over-year as network repositioning led to muted yields on key domestic and international routes. Operating margin contracted to 17.8%, compared with 20.5% in the same quarter last year, reflecting higher unit costs associated with fleet realignment and capacity adjustments. Management noted that ongoing optimization of transcontinental wide-body flying and regional narrow-body deployments will remain the focal point for margin recovery over the next two quarters.

2. Valuation and Future Earnings Growth

Aeroméxico currently trades at an enterprise value to EBITDA multiple of 5.1x, substantially below the 7.6x average of its global airline peers. Analysts forecasting a 10.5% compounded annual growth rate in EBITDA through 2027 have set a blended price target of $27.32, implying roughly 33% upside from recent levels. This gap highlights potential upside if the carrier successfully enhances yield management and completes its network repositioning with limited incremental cost pressure.

3. Broker Ratings and Price Targets

Among eight brokerages tracking Aeroméxico, seven have issued buy ratings and one has assigned a hold, resulting in a consensus Moderate Buy. Barclays initiated coverage with an overweight rating and a $27.00 target, while Evercore ISI set an outperform rating with a $36.00 target. Itau BBA also issued an outperform view, contrasting with hold ratings from Wall Street Zen and Zacks Research. The average 12-month price objective stands at $30.00, underscoring broad confidence in the airline's recovery trajectory.

4. Recent Trading Trends and Technical Indicators

Shares have fluctuated between a one-year low of $16.00 and a high of $23.05, closing recently near the mid-$20 range. A 2.2% pullback on the last trading session coincided with profit-taking following stronger sector performance. The 50-day moving average sits at $19.56, providing a near-term support level. Traders are watching whether a sustained move above $23.00 could trigger further momentum toward analyst targets.

Sources

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Aeroméxico Q3 2025 Revenues Fall 4.4% while Analysts Forecast 33% Upside - AERO News | Rallies