AeroVironment falls as SCAR/BADGER termination overhang and lower FY2026 outlook linger
AeroVironment shares are sliding as investors continue to price in fallout from the Space Force SCAR/BADGER program after the company disclosed the government’s intent to terminate the agreement for convenience on March 10, 2026. The move follows a guidance reset to $1.85B–$1.95B FY2026 revenue and heightened uncertainty around re-competing future SCAR work.
1. What’s driving AVAV lower today
AeroVironment (AVAV) is down as the market continues to react to the company’s March 10, 2026 disclosure that the U.S. government intends to terminate for convenience the company’s agreement tied to BADGER phased array antenna systems supporting the Space Force’s SCAR program, while still allowing AeroVironment to compete for future SCAR work. That language leaves investors modeling a near-term revenue/margin hole plus a longer, less-certain path to recapture the opportunity via rebid or follow-on awards. (sec.gov)
2. The fundamental backdrop: guidance reset and earnings noise
The selloff is occurring against the backdrop of AeroVironment’s fiscal Q3 results (reported March 10, 2026) that included a cut to full-year fiscal 2026 revenue guidance to $1.85 billion–$1.95 billion and a wider focus on profitability and integration execution. Even without new headlines, the combination of reduced outlook and SCAR uncertainty has kept the stock sensitive to incremental selling and position de-risking. (avinc.com)
3. What to watch next
Key near-term catalysts are (1) any formal follow-through on the termination process and associated financial impacts, (2) clarity on timing/structure of any SCAR re-competition and AeroVironment’s role, and (3) whether management can sustain bookings and backlog conversion enough to offset the SCAR/BADGER disruption. Investors will also be monitoring for incremental legal/claims-related headlines after investor-law-firm announcements that can add volatility even if they don’t change the underlying contract math. (prnewswire.com)