AI-Driven Foundry Demand to Boost Q2 Systems Revenues; Analysts Raise Lam Research Targets to $265
Lam Research expects AI-driven foundry demand to boost its Q2 Systems revenues as chipmakers adopt its advanced etch and deposition tools. Analysts recently raised price targets to $250–$265 following the company’s Q3 beat—EPS of $1.26 on revenue of $5.32 billion, up 27.7% year-over-year.
1. AI-Driven Foundry Demand to Propel Q2 Systems Revenues
Lam Research expects accelerated demand from AI-focused logic foundry customers to drive robust growth in its systems segment during the second quarter. Advanced etch and deposition tools tailored for high-density transistor nodes have secured new orders from three leading logic foundries, with backlog in tool shipments up 35% sequentially. Management highlighted that 3D NAND deposition platforms, which account for roughly 40% of current systems revenue, will continue to benefit from AI-optimized memory designs, setting the stage for a potential double-digit increase in systems bookings compared to the prior quarter.
2. Institutional Investors Adjust Stakes Following Q3 Results
During the third quarter, CIBC Asset Management reduced its Lam Research position by 0.7%, selling 2,800 shares to bring its holding to 394,526 shares valued at about $52.8 million. In contrast, First Citizens Bank & Trust boosted its stake by 8.0%, acquiring 10,408 additional shares to hold 140,433 shares worth approximately $18.8 million. Other notable moves include TFR Capital’s 286.4% position increase and Norges Bank’s inaugural $1.9 billion investment during the period. Overall, institutional ownership remains high at 84.6%, underscoring strong buy-side confidence in Lam’s technology roadmap.
3. Q3 Financial Performance and Outlook
In the latest quarter, Lam Research reported revenue of $5.32 billion, a 27.7% year-over-year increase, and non-GAAP EPS of $1.26, surpassing consensus by $0.04. Return on equity reached 60.6%, reflecting strong operating leverage. The company declared a $0.26 per share quarterly dividend, representing a 22.9% payout ratio. Looking ahead, management reaffirmed full-year non-GAAP EPS guidance of approximately $3.71 and anticipates free cash flow conversion above 90% of net income, supported by disciplined capital spending.
4. Insider Sales and Analyst Sentiment
Company insiders sold a total of 50,418 shares over the last quarter, including a 3.9% reduction by the CFO in mid-November. These dispositions coincide with elevated stock valuations but represent less than 0.5% of total shares outstanding. On the sell-side, 27 analysts maintain a buy rating and seven a hold rating, while recent target price revisions range from $181 to $260, reflecting a consensus view of moderate upside in the coming twelve months.