AI inference prices fall 200-fold as flagship premiums hold, Acquinox Capital says
QQQ•GPT-4-class input prices fell roughly 200-fold over 42 months to $0.15 per million tokens in September 2026, while OpenAI's GPT-6 Astra lists at $10. Acquinox Capital says returns may favor AI providers embedded in customer workflows, while hyperscaler spending raises investment-bust risks.
1. Prices and premiums
GPT-4-class input prices fell roughly 200-fold over 42 months, reaching $0.15 per million tokens in September 2026. OpenAI's GPT-6 Astra lists at $10 per million input tokens, despite price cuts for lower-tier models.
2. Adoption and spending
McKinsey's 2026 survey found that 44% of organizations were scaling AI enterprise-wide, but only 6% attributed at least 5% of EBIT to AI. The five largest hyperscalers' AI capital spending exceeds $1 trillion across 2025-2026, outpacing earnings and free cash flow. Acquinox Capital says AI investment returns are likely to favor providers embedded in customer workflows over those competing on model performance alone, and that spending levels raise investment-bust risks.
