AI spending drives US capital investment growth, analysis shows
SPY•US capital spending growth reached an annualized 11% in the first quarter of 2026, up from 5.5% in 2025, driven by AI infrastructure. Investment outside AI remained weak, while policy changes and tariffs added uncertainty to the outlook.
1. AI spending leads growth
US capital spending growth reached an annualized 11% in the first quarter of 2026, compared with 5.5% in 2025, driven by investment in AI infrastructure. Spending outside AI remained weak, particularly on offices and manufacturing structures, and data center moratoriums could slow growth.
2. Policy and tariff effects
The 2025 One Big Beautiful Bill Act restored permanent 100% bonus depreciation for capital expenditures and immediate expensing for domestic research and development. Announced Section 232 tariffs range from 25% to 100%, with exemptions available for importers that commit to approved domestic production plans.
3. Uncertain outlook
Policy volatility clouds long-term reindustrialization prospects. Shifting production domestically could intensify inflation pressures while inflation remains above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target.
