Alcoa Projects Up to 2.8M-Tonne Shipments After 5% 2025 Output Gain
Alcoa’s Aluminum segment raised production by 5% in 2025 to 2.319 million metric tons, driving third-party revenues up 15.6% year-on-year by benefiting from higher realized prices and a 50% U.S. import tariff. For 2026, the company forecasts Aluminum production of 2.4–2.6 million tonnes and shipments of 2.6–2.8 million tonnes.
1. Aluminum Segment Performance
In 2025, Alcoa’s Aluminum segment produced 2.319 million metric tons, a 5% increase year-on-year, while third-party revenues climbed 15.6%, propelled by higher average realized prices and a 50% U.S. import tariff implemented in June 2025 to support domestic producers.
2. Smelter Restarts
The segment’s growth reflects the restart of the San Ciprián (Spain), Alumar (Brazil) and Lista (Norway) smelters, each contributing to higher capacity utilization and enabling Alcoa to meet rising demand in electrical, packaging and aerospace markets.
3. 2026 Outlook
Alcoa projects Aluminum segment production of 2.4–2.6 million tonnes in 2026, with shipment volumes expected between 2.6–2.8 million tonnes, underpinned by sustained demand from electric vehicles, recycling initiatives and aviation applications.
4. Market Valuation and Stock Performance
Shares of Alcoa have risen 54.3% over the past three months, aligning with industry gains, while the stock trades at a forward P/E of 12.45X versus the sector’s 13.03X, reflecting a value-oriented valuation and positive consensus earnings revisions.