Alcoa’s Q4 Revenue Jumps 15% to $3.45B, Adjusted EBITDA Hits $546M
Alcoa’s Q4 revenue climbed 15% sequentially to $3.45 billion, and adjusted EPS reached $1.26, beating consensus by $0.34. Adjusted EBITDA surged $276 million Q/Q to $546 million, supported by higher aluminum prices and CO2 compensation, and 2026 guidance forecasts 9.7–9.9 million ton alumina and 2.4–2.6 million ton aluminum production.
1. Alcoa Reports Strong Q4 2025 Earnings
Alcoa Corporation delivered fourth-quarter revenue of $3.45 billion, exceeding the consensus estimate of $3.31 billion by 4.2%. Adjusted earnings per share came in at $1.26, well above the $0.92 consensus, representing a 32.6% surprise. Net income rose to $226 million from $202 million in the year-ago period, driven by higher aluminum prices and efficiency gains across its global operations.
2. Segment Performance Highlights Robust Volumes and Pricing
In the Alumina segment, third-party revenue increased 3% sequentially, supported by higher bauxite offtake agreements and stronger alumina shipments. The Aluminum segment posted a 21% quarter-over-quarter revenue gain, reflecting elevated realized prices and a 4% rise in shipment volumes to 604,000 metric tons. Alumina production reached 2.48 million metric tons, up 1% sequentially, driven by ramp‐ups at Australian refineries.
3. Strong Cash Position and Margin Expansion
Adjusted EBITDA, excluding special items, totaled $546 million, up $276 million from Q3, aided by CO₂ compensation benefits in Spain and Norway and the absence of asset retirement obligation charges. Operating cash flow for the quarter was $537 million, bringing the year-end cash balance to $1.6 billion. The company’s margin expansion underscores its ability to convert higher aluminum prices into incremental profit.
4. 2026 Guidance Underpinned by Smelter Restarts and Productivity Gains
For fiscal 2026, Alcoa projects alumina production of 9.7–9.9 million metric tons and aluminum output of 2.4–2.6 million metric tons, driven by productivity improvements and the restart of the San Ciprián smelter in Spain. In Q1 2026, the Alumina segment is expected to face a $30 million sequential EBITDA headwind due to seasonal maintenance and lower offtake volumes, while the Aluminum segment anticipates a $70 million decline in adjusted EBITDA owing to the absence of carbon compensation benefits and restart costs.
5. Analyst Confidence and Upgraded Price Target
B. Riley reaffirmed its Buy rating on Alcoa and raised the price target from $44 to $78, reflecting confidence in sustained demand for aluminum, the company’s cost discipline and cash-generation profile. The upgrade highlights expectations for further margin improvement and upside from ongoing smelter restarts.