Alibaba’s share price has surged roughly 75% in the past calendar year, marking its strongest performance since 2020. That year, the stock outperformed broader markets by nearly 50% before entering a prolonged slump. Investors should note that after post-rally pullbacks in previous cycles, the company’s shares declined by more than 30% over the following 12 months. While recent gains reflect renewed confidence, history suggests the risk of a significant correction remains if broader sentiment shifts or regulatory headwinds reemerge.

Over the trailing twelve months, Alibaba has committed over $17 billion in capital expenditures toward artificial intelligence and cloud infrastructure. Its cloud intelligence division reported revenue growth of 34% in the latest quarterly results, more than doubling the 15% growth rate from continuing operations overall. AI‐related product revenue has delivered year-over-year growth north of 100% for nine consecutive quarters, underscoring the division’s accelerating contribution to group profitability. The e-commerce business continues to generate robust cash flows—Taobao and Tmall together represented 45% of consolidated revenue and contributed over 100% of adjusted EBITDA in fiscal 2025—enabling sustained investment without dilutive funding.

Alibaba has anchored a cornerstone tranche of approximately $350 million in the upcoming Hong Kong IPO of Chinese AI startup MiniMax, which is targeting a valuation near $6.5 billion. The offering, set to price between HKD 151 and HKD 165 per share and raise at least HKD 3.83 billion, reflects Alibaba’s commitment to fostering a domestic AI ecosystem. Proceeds will largely fund AI model research and product development over the next five years. This strategic stake not only diversifies Alibaba’s AI exposure beyond its own research but also positions the group to benefit from potential upside in MiniMax’s growth trajectory.