All-Time High U.S. and China iPhone Upgrade Rates Drive Apple’s 2026 Market Share Gain
Morgan Stanley’s AlphaWise survey shows next-12-month iPhone upgrade rates hitting all-time highs in the U.S. and China, positioning Apple to gain share in 2026 while Android shipments fall an estimated 15% year-on-year. The bank lowers its 2026 global smartphone forecast to 1.1 billion units with Apple down just 2%.
1. Survey Findings
The AlphaWise survey reports next-12-month iPhone upgrade rates at all-time highs in the U.S. and China, with the global upgrade rate rising to 37% (up two percentage points) and switching rates hitting a five-year peak. Demand for models with larger storage capacity jumped 18%, underscoring strong premium interest.
2. Shipment Forecast Revisions
Morgan Stanley cuts its 2026 global smartphone shipment forecast from 1.3 billion to 1.1 billion units, projecting Android volumes to fall 15% year-on-year compared with just a 2% decline for Apple. This revision reflects broader market headwinds and cost pressures.
3. Competitive Outlook
Apple is the only major smartphone vendor expected to gain market share in 2026, driven by new features, stronger device quality and broad upgrade eligibility. In contrast, Android manufacturers face unprecedented memory cost inflation, lower brand loyalty and greater price sensitivity that could dampen demand.